JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS

Holocene history of deep‐seated landsliding in the North Fork Stillaguamish River valley from surface roughness analysis, radiocarbon dating, and numerical landscape evolution modeling

Modeling strong‐motion recordings of the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake with high stress‐drop subevents and background slip

Arthur Frankel

Strong‐motion recordings of the Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake were modeled using a compound rupture model consisting of (1) a background slip distribution with large correlation lengths, relatively low slip velocity, and long peak rise time of slip of about 10 s and (2) high stress‐drop subevents (asperities) on the deeper portion of the rupture with moment magnitudes 7.9–8.2, high slip velocity, and rise times of slip of about 2 s. In this model, the high‐frequency energy is not produced in the same location as the peak coseismic slip, but is generated in the deeper part of the rupture zone.

Evaluating a kinematic method for generating broadband ground motions for great subduction zone earthquakes: Application to the 2003 Mw 8.3 Tokachi‐Oki earthquake

Erin A. Wirth , Arthur Frankel, and John E. Vidale

We compare broadband synthetic seismograms with recordings of the 2003 MwMw 8.3 Tokachi‐Oki earthquake to evaluate a compound rupture model, in which slip on the fault consists of multiple high‐stress‐drop asperities superimposed on a background slip distribution with longer rise times. Low‐frequency synthetics (<1  Hz<1  Hz) are calculated using deterministic, 3D finite‐difference simulations and are combined with high‐frequency (>1  Hz>1  Hz) stochastic synthetics using a matched filter at 1 Hz.

Nasser A. Marafi, Marc O. Eberhard, Jeffrey W. BermanErin A. Wirth, and Arthur D. Frankel

Deep sedimentary basins are known to increase the intensity of ground motions, but this effect is implicitly considered in seismic hazard maps used in U.S. building codes. The basin amplification of ground motions from subduction earthquakes is particularly important in the Pacific Northwest, where the hazard at long periods is dominated by such earthquakes.

Perceptions of earthquake early warnings on the U.S. West Coast

Earthquake early warning systems can provide seconds to minutes of lead time by alerting people that an earthquake has started and shaking is coming, enabling them to take protective action. To examine how earthquake early warnings might be received on the U.S. West coast, we conducted surveys of residents in the west coast states of Washington, Oregon and California (N=2595) through Google paywall intercept surveys administered in three rounds between September 2014 and September 2015.

The Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting

Edward H. Field, Thomas H. Jordan, Lucile M. Jones, Andrew J., Michael, Michael L. Blanpied, and Other Workshop Participants

This article reports on a workshop held to explore the potential uses of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). We discuss the current status of OEF in the United States and elsewhere, the types of products that could be generated, the various potential users and uses of OEF, and the need for carefully crafted communication protocols.

Planning for a Subduction Zone Observatory

Joan Gomberg, Paul Bodin, Jody Bourgeois, Susan Cashman, Darrel Cowan, Ken Creager, Brendan Crowell, Alison Duvall, Arthur Frankel, Frank Gonzalez, Heidi Houston, Paul Johnson, Harvey Kelsey, Una Miller, Emily Roland, David Schmidt, Lydia Staisch, John Vidale, William Wilcock, and Erin Wirth

Subduction zones contain many of Earth’s most remarkable geologic structures, from the deepest oceanic trenches to glacier-covered mountains and steaming volcanoes. These environments formed through spectacular events: Nature’s largest earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions are born here.

A comparison of a two-dimensional depth averaged flow model and a three-dimensional RANS model for predicting tsunami inundation and fluid forces

Xinsheng Qin, Michael Motley, Randall LeVeque, Frank Gonzalez,and Kaspar Mueller

The numerical modeling of tsunami inundation that incorporates the built environment of coastal communities is challenging for both depth-integrated 2D and 3D models, not only in modeling the flow, but also in predicting forces on coastal structures. For depth-integrated 2D models, inundation and flooding in this region can be very complex with variation in the vertical direction caused by wave breaking on shore and interactions with the built environment and the model may not be able to produce enough detail.

OTHER PUBLICATIONS, CONFERENCE PAPERS AND PRESENTIONS

Frankel (presenter), E. Wirth, J. Vidale, N. Marafi, and W. Stephenson. 3-D Simulations of M9 Earthquakes on the Cascadia Megathrust: Methodology and Results. Proceedings of the 11th National Conference in Earthquake Engineering, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Los Angeles, CA. 2018.

Marafi (presenter), M. Eberhard, J. Berman, E. Wirth, A. Frankel, and J. Vidale. Effects of Simulated Magnitude 9 Earthquake Motions on Structures in the Pacific Northwest. Proceedings of the 11th National Conference in Earthquake Engineering, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Los Angeles, CA. 2018.

Wirth (presenter), A. Frankel, N. Marafi, J. Vidale, W. Stephenson. 3-D Simulations of Megathrust Earthquakes in Cascadia – Implications for Strong Ground Motions, Basin Amplification, and Coseismic Deformation. Seismology of the Americas Meeting, Miami, FL, 2018.

Wirth (presenter), A. Frankel, J. Vidale, N. Marafi, and W. Stephenson. 3-D Simulations of M9 Earthquakes on the Cascadia Megathrust: Key Parameters and Uncertainty. Proceedings of the 11th National Conference in Earthquake Engineering, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Los Angeles, CA. 2018.

Frankel (presenter), E. Wirth, N. Marafi, J. Vidale, and W. Stephenson. 3D Ground-Motion Simulations for Magnitude 9 Earthquakes on the Cascadia Megathrust: Sedimentary Basin Amplification, Rupture Directivity, and Ground-Motion Variability. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA, 2017.

Wirth (presenter), A. Frankel, J. Vidale, N. Marafi, and W. Stephenson. 3-D Simulations of M9 Earthquakes on the Cascadia Megathrust: Key Parameters and Constraints from Paleoseismic Evidence. Geological Society of America Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA, 2017.

Wirh (presenter), A. Frankel, J. Vidale, I. Stone, N. Marafi, and W. Stephenson. 3-D Simulation of Earthquakes on the Cascadia Megathrust: Key Parameters and Constraints from Offshore Structure and Seismicity. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, New Orleans, LA, 2017.

Frankel, A. (presenter), Wirth, E., Vidale, J., Stephenson, W., and Marafi, N., (2017) Broadband synthetic seismograms for magnitude 9 earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust derived from 3D finite-difference simulations and stochastic synthetics, SSA Annual Meeting, Denver, CO.

Kramer, S. L. and Greenfield, M. W. (2017).  “Effects of Long-duration Motions on Soil Liquefaction Hazards.”  16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering. Santiago, Chile.

LaHusen, S. (presenter), Grant, A., Duvall, A., and Wartman, J. (2016) Assessing the impact of coseismic landslides during the AD 1700 Cascadia Subduction Zone Megathrust Earthquake Along the Coastline of the Pacific Northwest (USA), GSA Annual meeting, Denver, CO.

Marafi, N. A. (presenter), Berman, J. W., Eberhard, M. O., Wirth, E. A., Frankel A. D., and Vidale, J. E. (2017) “Effects of Simulated Magnitude 9 Earthquake Motions on Structures in the Pacific Northwest “. 2017 Annual Meeting Seismological Society of America, Denver, Colorado, April 2017

Marafi, N. A. (presenter), Eberhard, M. O., and Berman, J. W. (2017) “Effects of the Yufutsu Basin on Structural  Response during Subduction Earthquakes “. 16th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Santiago, Chile, January 2017.

Marafi, N. A. (presenter), Berman, J. W., and Eberhard, M. O. (2017) “A New Intensity Measure that Accounts for the effects of Spectral Acceleration, Duration, and Spectral Shape”. 116th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Santiago, Chile, January 2017

Thompson, M. (presenter), Vidale, J. E., Wirth, E. A., (2016). Dependence of seismic wave amplification on event location and basin geometry, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA.

Vidale, J. E. (presenter), Wirth, E. A., Frankel, A. D., Baker, B., Thompson, M., Han, J., Marafi, N., and Stephenson, W. J., (2016). Refined modeling of Seattle basin amplification, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA.

Wirth, E. A. (presenter), and Frankel, A. (2017). 3-D simulations of megathrust earthquakes in Cascadia — Implications of paleoseismic evidence for the down-dip rupture extent and along-strike rupture variability, SSA Annual Meeting, Denver, CO.

Wirth, E. A. (presenter), Frankel, A., and Vidale, J. E., (2016). The M9 Project: 3-D Simulations of Megathrust Earthquakes in Cascadia, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA.

Qin, M. R. Motley, R. J. LeVeque, and F. I. González, Multi-scale modeling of a 500-year CSZ tsunami inundation with constructed environment, submitted to 2017 International Workshop on Computing in Civil Engineering (IWCCE 2017) (http://iwcce2017.be.washington.edu/)

William S. D. Wilcock, David A. Schmidt, John E. Vidale, Michael J. Harrington, Paul Bodin, Geoffrey S. Cram, John R. Delaney, Frank I. Gonzalez, Deborah S. Kelley, Randall J. LeVeque, Dana A. Manalang, Chuck McGuire, Emily C. Roland, Mark W. Stoermer, James W. Tilley.  Designing an Offshore Geophysical Network in the Pacific Northwest for Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning and Hazard Research. Oceans ‘16, MTS/IEEE, Monterey, CA, September 19-23, 2016.

Hasan, H.A. Lodhi, R.J. LeVeque, S.H. Lodi, and S. Ahmed, Assessing Tsunami Risk to Karachi Port through Simulation of Currents that were Reportedly Produced there by the 1945 Makran Tsunami, 16th World Conference on Earthquake, 16WCEE 2017, Santiago Chile.

Bostrom, A.  “A brief introduction to local risk perceptions and governance.”  Invited presentation at the McKinley Futures Studio, Gould Hall, Department of Architecture, University of Washington, April 5, 2017. (NSF support acknowledged)

Bostrom, A., Dunn, P., Vidale, J., Ahn, A., Society for Risk Analysis 2015 Annual Meeting, “Earthquake experiences, risk perceptions and Early Warnings on the U.S. West Coast,” Arlington, VA.

Bostrom, A., Dunn, P., Ahn, A., Vidale, J., The Natural Hazards Center and International Sociological Association’s International Research Committee on Disasters meeting, “Perceptions of Earthquake Early Warnings on the U.S. West Coast,” The Natural Hazards Center and International Sociological Association, Broomfield, Colorado, 2015.

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